MistaFlava's ATP NEW HAVEN ***Power Selections*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's Record This Week: 0-0 (+$0.00)

Coming off a money crushing week last week I am back for some more cash money and looking to get back on track before the US Open starts. I should have several plays locked and loaded all week and the goal is to make $10 000 for the upcoming football season, which by the way starts next Thursday night when college football kicks off.



ATP New Haven


Olivier Rochus -150 over Jose Acasuso ($2500 to win $1675)

You ain't gonna win no money if you don't take no big risks which is something I did last week but I did a bit too extremely. You can forget about their one and only career meeting because it was way back in 2001 and it was on clay courts where of course Acasuso would have the big edge. We are back on hardcourts where both players have shown to be as inconsistent as it gets but where we know Rochus is by far the better player. Rochus looked okay in TMS Cincinnati where he won two qualifying matches and took a set off Juan Carlos Ferrero. Yes that was impressive and yes it shows that he can still compete. You can't forget that Rochus really enjoys playing on these courts and he proved that last year by beating Monfils and Simon before reaching the quarter-finals and losing out to Davydenko (who was basically on fire the entire US Open series). Acasuso did win his first round match here in 2006 against Nicolas Mahut but that was as far as he got and I don't think he has the consistent ground game to beat a pest like Rochus on hardcourts. If you want to see the big difference in their abilities on hardcourts look no further than Olivier Rochus and his 31-19 record in his last 50 hardcourt matches. Jose Acasuso on the other hand has a pathetic 18-32 record in his last 50 hardcourt matches which like I said, is a clear indication of what both players can do on this surface. This is also Acasuso's first match coming off the clay court season and even though he did well in Sopot and lost in the FINALS, he has not played a single match on hardcourts since TMS Miami back in March and I don't think he's gonna have a damn clue what is going on out there. Players like Acasuso need quite a bit of time to adjust to the court style changes and even though Rochus is not in the best of forms right now, he most certainly is capable of winning this match and following up on his good showing against Ferrero in TMS Cincinnati. You also have to know that Rochus is 6-0 in his last six ATP hardcourt first round matches which means that he usually does well at this stage but then crashes out when the level of opponent is taken to a new level. Both players perform a lot better in ATP events than they do in TMS events which is a good signe for both sides of the ball here but in the end, with this kind of price, you have to go with the player who is better shaped to win on hardcourts. I will take the mental midget for a really good price and here and I am confident he can bring home the bacon. GO ROCHUS!

 

[punz34]

whens htis match?

 

[MistaFlava]

whens htis match?

about to go offline at most books, starting in the next 10 minutes. Some books have set cutoff times so its probably gone already but it hasnt started as of right now.

 

[Tchocky]

Can't believe Rochus only won 1 game in the 1st set. I have Rochus -1.5 games. Match is tied at 5-5. Ollie needs to win 2nd set and bagel Jose in the 3rd to cover.

 

[Tchocky]

Acasuso wins in straight sets. You would have had a nice payday if you took Jose.

 

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's Record this week: 0-1 (-$2500)



ATP New Haven: R32


Jose Acasuso 1.75 over Dominik Hrbaty ($1500 to win $1125)

I made a huge mistake with my first wager of the week and that mistake was underestimating a guy who beat the shit out of Mikhail Youzhny on this very same surface at Indians Wells earlier this year. Jose Acasuso is no joke when it comes to playing in hardcourt tournaments against somewhat weak opponents and I found that out to the tune of $2500 in losses on Monday afternoon. Well time to learn from my mistakes and realize that Acasuso played pretty damn well and that his opponent in the R32 is none other than Dominator who is 2-6 in his last eight hardcourt matches (including one loss at the Challenger level). Despite somehow beatin Robredo and Kohlschreiber in TMS Montreal a few weeks ago, Hrbaty has lost on hardcourts against Potatito Starace (Oh God), Michael Llodra (not so much) and that tool Teimuraz Gabashvili (now that sucks) all in recent weeks. Acasuso is not much better on this surface but he did take care of business and show some nerves against Olivier Rochus in the opening round of this tournament. He also has wins this year against Youzhny and Arnaud Clement on hardcourts and is playing in New Haven for the second year in a row which could give him a better grasp on the speed of the courts compared to Hrbaty who has never stepped foot on one of these New Haven courts for a match. Both players have losing records on hardcourts the last 12 months so the odds are appropriate. Acasuso only has 21 career wins on hardcourts compared to Hrbaty's 119 career wins on this surface but in their one and only meeting on hardcourts Acasuso beat him in straight sets. The problem with Acasuso and some of his hardcourt matches has been losing in tiebreakers. Well that problem could be solved in this match as Hrbaty is only 3-6 in hardcourt tiebreakers the last 12 months and I expect that to be the difference. I refuse to back Hrbaty unless he is playing on the indoor hardcourts where he seems to have a much better grasp and understanding of how things work. Acasuso was impressive in his opener and I think he continues to impress in this match and wins this baby in two sets against the piece of crap choker.




Robby Ginepri 1.63 over Agustin Calleri ($1500 to win $945)

Well I go from backing one Argentinian to hoping another chokes to death in this match and goes away without making too big a fuss. It's only normal that I back an American other than James Blake because the price being offered is pretty damn good and Robby Ginepri has for some reason always been kind to me when I bet on him or against him. What the hell is this 31 year old Argentinian trying to prove at this point his career by entering so many hardcourt tournaments anyways? I don't understand what the point is and I don't understand why bookies give him so much credit. We are talking about a guy who is a few years away from being washed up and playing with the older boys and who has won only 49% of his career matches on hardcourts. Ginepri on the other hand has won 60% of his career matches on this surface. Shockingly, and I did not know this until this morning, Calleri comes into this tournament defending a ton of points from last year's New Haven event where he somehow reached the Final and lost to Nikolay Davydenko in straight sets. However, that was then and this is now and times have changed. Ginepri can be very unstable at times and we have all seen that but he is 2-0 career wise against Calleri which could be a big time confidence booster for him. I also liked the way he competed against Davydenko in Cincinnati and made the Russian pull out all the stops to finally win the match. Calleri is not in the same form as he was in New Haven last year (when he reached the final) as he is 0-5 in his last five hardcourt matches having not won since January on this surface. Heading into New Haven in 2006, Calleri had been to the quarter-finals of TMS Miami and like I said before, the situation was completely different. All Ginepri really has to do in this match is keep his head straight and remember the times he beat Calleri back in the day. I know Robby is a big question mark to many but I strongly believe he can put things together long enough to get some attention in this match and I think he is going to overwhelm Calleri to the point where the Argentinian is forced into too many errors and he ends up losing his sixth straight match on hardcourts. Give me the American please...




WTA Forest Hills: R16


Nathalie Dechy 1.80 over Vera Dushevina ($1500 to win $1200)

Believe me when I say that betting on women's tennis has not been all that nice to me over the year or the past 12 months but im feeling good about this one and I think there is SHARP money to be made here. Sure it's nice to have a 2-0 career head-to-head advantage on hardcourts like Dechy has over the 20 year old russian but betting on these ladies is not all about things like that. Think of it for a second here. What the hell are the bookies trying to do anyways? Dushevina is all of a sudden an underdog when she is 32-15 on the year and going up against a much older woman who is 14-16 on the year. So what the hell sense does it make to have the youngster as the underdog? It doesn't...but there is no way I am missing out on what someone knows about Dechy in this one. The last time we saw Dechy was in Toronto last week where she beat Gagliardi in the first round and then lost to Safina in a blowout in the second round. Dushevina on the other hand is coming off a huge finals appearance in a hardcourt tournament a few weeks back in Stockholm, Sweden. However nice that was, she played against only player ranked inside the TOP 70 in that tournament beating the world #177, #75, #168 and #554. Well Nathalie Dechy is ranked #56 in the world and like I just mentioned, Dushevina's best win in Stockholm was against the 75th best played in the world. I actually expect this match to be quite interesting and although we do not have the pleasure of following this son of a bitch on the WTA provided scoreboards (dont ask me why), I think I can follow this with nolop at WTAworld and enjoy what kind of veteranship Dechy brings to the table. This is the one match people seem to have swept under the rug for the opening round and this is exactly why I am taking full advantage of the very good odds, misleading recent results for both players and this fantastic chance to make some big time money.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



WTA New Haven: R16


Sania Mirza 1.51 over Alona Bondarenko ($1500 to win $765)

Well well well...these are pretty damn nice odds and if you think for one second im going to miss out on these, you're making a mistake. Both women looked pretty damn good in their first round matches of this event (neither one of them dropped a set) but of the two I have to say Mirza looked a lot better as Bondarenko seemed to have some issues against a qualifier from Belarus. In their last hardcourt meeting both players found themselves outside the TOP 100 in women's tennis (only two years ago). Now both women find themselves inside the TOP 30 and both women are having pretty damn good seasons heading into the US Open. The main reason I really like Mirza in this spot is because she has been on hardcourts since mid-July and has played enough warmup events for the US Open to show how much she really cares about performing well. She is 12-4 since beginning her hardcourt season in Cincinnati where she managed to reach the semi-finals. She followed that up with a finals appearance in the Stanford tournament, then followed that up with a quarter-finals appearance in San Diego and Round of 16 run in Los Angeles. The earlier loss in that LA tournament probably did her some good and gave her enough time to rest up for this tournament. Bondarenko on the other hand has played in this tournament twice prior to this season, losing in the qualifying rounds both times. Her hardcourt season began at the San Diego event in late July and has not gone so well as she was 1-3 coming into this tournament having lost to players ranked 23, 128 and 78 in the world. Apart from getting crushed by Srebotnik in San Diego, Mirza is the best opponent Bondarenko is going to have faced since the beginning of her hardcourt run. I think overall Mirza has been the better player this year and like I said before, her run in the hardcourt USA tournaments has been impressive and shows what kind of form she is in to compete in these tournaments. I am not missing out on this good price in what should be their most lop-sided encounter of the three career matches they have played. Give me Mirza for some cash money.

<!-- / message -->

 

[chengkeke]

Best of luck Mr. I really like Acasuso and Mirza. Do you like Benneteau? Huge movement from 2.44 into 2. Love your work and thank you for sharing

 

[Leviathan]

Nice start with Acasuso.

Good luck.

 

[Tchocky]

Straight set win win for Acasuso but Ginepri loses in 3.

 

[MistaFlava]

2-1 today (+825.00) with one pending


Now all I need is Mirza to make this a very nice day. Sad that Ginepri had to choke like that. Glad Dechy was as easy as I thought and nice to see Chucho not choke.